Researchers from Purdue University investigated the global economic and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission impacts of GM crops by modeling two counterfactual scenarios and assessing them apart and in combination. The first scenario explored the effect of global GMO ban, while the second one modelled the effect of increased GMO penetration with specific focus on the impact on price, welfare, and GHG emissions linked to GM technologies.

Results showed that food prices might increase from 0.27 to 2.2 percent, depending on the region. Total welfare losses linked to GM technology ban may sum up to $9.75 billion. Aside from economic effects of loss of importantbiotech traits, environmental effects can also take place. Full environmental analysis was not conducted in the study, but possible land use change due to loss of GMO traits and GHG emissions were analyzed. It was predicted that a significant increase in GHG emissions will occur if GMO technology is banned.

Download a copy of the paper in AgEcon.